Crisis, Disengagement, and Structural Realignment: A Threshold Model of Radical-Party Support

When does a crisis-induced surge in radical-party support fade away, and when does it become a durable realignment? We address this in a mathematical sociology threshold model on a conserved population. The baseline admits a global classification through a Perron–Frobenius threshold. Adding a crisis-induced disengagement compartment, we separate state shocks (which alter the current state) from structural shocks (which alter parameters). State shocks affect transients but cannot move the long-run attractor; durable realignment requires structural threshold-crossing. We derive a critical shock amplitude and a finite mobilisation-window bound, and show that cumulative structural shifts can produce staircase realignment. A stylised illustration uses German federal elections, 2013–2025.